Disconnect Between EPA Mandate and Technology

Gasoline demand projected in 2018 is 12% lower than 2007 projections / gasoline demand projected in 2020 is 22% lower than 2007 projections.

The statutory mandate for increased use of cellulosic
biofuels is disconnected from reality. Though there was
no commercial cellulosic production in 2010, 2011, or
2012, EPA set the required volume from 5 to 8.65 million
gallons over the period, forcing companies to purchase
credits to comply. The courts even ordered the EPA to
adjust its overly optimistic projections by directing the
agency to “aim at accuracy” when projecting cellulosic
biofuel availability. And yet for 2018, EPA projected 288 million ethanol equivalent gallons would be available, and by July, over half way through the year, only 136 million gallons were produced.

Clearly, the domestic cellulosic biofuel industry has
struggled and indeed could be seen as losing ground.
Actual production continue to diverge further and further
from EPA’s old targets, creating expensive uncertainty for
refineries busy meeting American fuel needs.